Introduction
June 12, 2006
These days, I am seeing the World “as if through a glass, and darkly.” For a year, I was arguing for complete withdrawal from Iraq, as the only way to end the United States being blamed by both sides for the mess. The kaleidoscope of my liberal arts education and experiences has changed, once more, and not for the reasons the Administration espouses publicly. I am now of the opinion that reduction of hostilities and/or American departure from Iraq will be the beginning of 25 very bad years.
Here's the working premise of Tsunami of Blood, a book I will be writing in this blog over the next few weeks:
1. Iraq is prologue; the real problems will come post a reduction of hostilities in Iraq. As a military man, the best training I can give my men and women, short of actual combat, is a "live fire exercise." When we took Afghanistan away from Al Qaeda, and attacked Iraq, we provided Osama bin Laden with his dream scenario; a reason to recruit Muslim young men (to get the infidels out of Muslim lands) and a "live fire exercise," to train his "army." When things settle out in Iraq, even a nervous truce, this "army" will have nothing to do. Many of them are Saudis (about 50%), Jordanians, Syrians, Egyptians, etc. They will be going home.
2. There is a very dangerous demographic developing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and other populous and volatile parts of the Arab World. For the purposes of this introduction, I will limit this discussion to Saudi Arabia, but the same applies in many other places. Approximately 22% of the Saudi population is between 15 and 23, about 3.5 million people, and half of those are men. What happens to all of that testosterone when there are no movies, few sports teams, little needed education, few jobs (about 22% unemployment in a country that has 6 million guest workers), very little access to women (even to share a coke), and no other real outlets for the inevitable frustrations? In my view, this is a crisis waiting to happen.
3. Now let’s envision a reduction of hostilities in Iraq causing the surviving junkyard dog fighters to go home—today’s Washington Post says: “Smoke of Iraq War ‘Drifting Over Lebanon’: In Political and Social Life, Returned Fighters Inspire Climate of Militancy”.
4. For a catalyst, let’s mix the demographic and the junkyard dog fighters, coming home from Iraq, with the probable targeting Fortune magazine recently published in an article (April 11th), which said that the fall of the Saudi Royal Family would cause oil prices to go to $262 per barrel, nearly 4 times the highest to date. "Ready for $262 a Barrel Oil?", Fortune, April 11, 2006. Al Qaeda already knew this, so I am not blaming Fortune for a diarrhea-of-the-pen sin.
5. If the Saudi Royal Family falls, what do our politicians do? ….. And this only considers the issue of Saudi Arabia. Yikes!
Like a tsunami at sea, the potential of these issues, all mixed together, is still invisible, but carries tremendous power. I'll readily acknowledge that I may be totally wrong, as many will accuse, but I am writing because I feel I'm one of the few Americans who sees that something might be amiss on the far side of Iraq. I hope I'm wrong!
This book is about the origins and experiences I’ve had since the London bombings of July 7, 2005, in creating Words Matter, a current affairs web site, www.wordsmatter.tv . I fear Words Matter is like the helpless raving of a seismologist, who has seen a 9.5 earthquake on his instruments, and knows there is nothing he can do to stop the imminent catastrophe, but shout at the dark.
Words Matter, LLC
By Skip Conover, Author and Publisher
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Skip Conover is a business executive, with over 25 years of international experience. He has built businesses throughout the World. On July 7, 2005, his television program, Words Matter, was born out of his reaction to the media coverage of the London bombings. This blog is the story of the development of a web site, www.wordsmatter.tv. Skip's long history of entrepreneurship was spawned from 45 years of living and working abroad, and informed by his liberal arts, legal, and business educations.
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